November 2017

 

Why Best Autonomous Self-Driving Connected Car (CAV) Research Shows Not Next iPhone

By  Lynn Walford
       Auto Connected Car News

 


In the past few months there have been several studies about consumers, drivers, automakers, mobility and the future of the self-driving cars, autonomous, connect vehicles. There are many reasons for this.

 

Cities need to plan for the future. Automakers want to make more profits. Technology companies are looking for the next “iPhone”. Futurists want a better world. Consumers who are faced with the average price of car at about $35,000 are trying to find a cheaper way to get around. Traffic is getting worse, sending Wazers up mountains and through all parts of town to get to work and home. Drivers want to do something to cope with the boredom of long commutes.

Studies and any trip on the road show that drivers are not looking at the road but at smartphones. This creates a perfect storm for miscommunication, confusion and the birth of urban legends. Younger people think self-driving cars are safe, while older people are scared.  However, academic research shows that autonomous driving will not solve the world’s traffic problems because autonomous cars will make way more trips and cut into other public transportation.

This article is a comprehensive compilation of the latest theories and reports about self-driving autonomous connected cars and new mobility options.

Let’s look at recent studies and white papers, we also need to look at who or what entity paid for the study.

 

Autonomous Intel the Way to Profits, Mobility Services and Car-Venience

In study commissioned (paid for) by Intel, a company that is investing hug sums of money into autonomous technology including SoCs and advanced circutry. The explores the yet-to-be-realized economic potential when today’s drivers become idle passengers. Coined the “Passenger Economy” by Intel and prepared by analyst firm Strategy Analytics, the study predicts an explosive economic trajectory growing from $800 billion in 2035 to $7 trillion by 2050.

The report claims autonomous driving and smart city technologies will enable the new Passenger Economy, gradually reconfiguring entire industries and inventing new ones thanks to the time and cognitive surplus it will unlock. The nreport frames the value of the economic opportunity through both a consumer and business lens and begins to build use cases designed to enable decision-makers to develop actionable change strategies.

The research firm further points out that autonomously operated vehicle commercialization will gain steam by 2040 – generating an increasingly large share of the projected value and heralding the emergence of instantaneously personalized services.

Key report highlights include:

Business use of Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) is expected to generate $3 trillion in revenues, or 43 percent of the total passenger economy.
Consumer use of Mobility-as-a-Service offerings is expected to account for $3.7 trillion in revenue, or nearly 55 percent of the total passenger economy.

$200 billion of revenue is expected to be generated from rising consumer use of new innovative applications and services that will emerge as pilotless vehicle services expand and evolve.

Self-driving vehicles are expected to free more than 250 million hours of consumers’ commuting time per year in the most congested cities in the world.

Reductions in public safety costs related to traffic accidents could amount to more than $234 billion over the Passenger Economy era from 2035-2045.


Highlights of future scenarios explored in the study include:

Car-venience: From onboard beauty salons to touch-screen tables for remote collaboration, fast-casual dining, remote vending, mobile health care clinics and treatment pods, and even platooning pod hotels, vehicles will become transportation experience pods.

Movable movies: Media and content producers will develop custom content formats to match short and long travel times.

Location-based advertising: Location-based advertising will become more keenly relevant, and advertisers and agencies will be presented with a new realm of possibilities for presenting content brands and location.

Mobility-as-a-perk: Employers, office buildings, apartment complexes, university campuses and housing estates will offer MaaS to add value to and distinguish their offer from competitors or as part of their compensation package.

The Passenger Economy report was sponsored by Intel and developed by Strategy Analytics.

 

 

Foley Shows Barriers Confusion Between Connected Cars and Autonomous Cars & IP Ownership

Foley’s 2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles Survey found that traditional automakers and suppliers have been joined by emerging and mature technology companies in the race to fill the streets with driverless cars. Foley interviews not consumers but automotive industry insiders Foley’s shows barriers to these technologies reaching their growth potential and gaining acceptance by the general public.

As for autonomous vehicles, the biggest perceived barrier among our respondents is reluctant consumers who may be concerned about the safety and viability of riding in self-driving cars and sharing the road with others. Thirty-five percent of respondents selected safety as the biggest obstacle to growth for autonomous vehicles, followed closely by consumer readiness toadopt (24%).

Foley’s 2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles Survey found that traditional automakers and suppliers have been joined by emerging and mature technology companies in the race to fill the streets with driverless cars. However, there remain barriers to these technologies reaching their growth potential and gaining acceptance by the general public.


Connected Car / Con-Fusion

While the terms “connected cars” and “autonomous vehicles” are often used interchangeably, there are clear differences in where the technologies currently stand and their obstacles to growth. For connected cars, which have sensor-enabled communication systems, the largest percentage of respondents (31%) view cybersecurity and privacy issues as the most pressing concern. By contrast, respondents identified safety (35%) and consumer readiness to adopt (24%) as the top obstacles to advancing autonomous vehicle development.

Respondents expect the automotive sales process to continue evolving as new technologies enter the market. The vast majority (77%) anticipate that automakers will bundle more connected services and/or autonomous features at the point of sale, while roughly half (46%) predict that sellers will increasingly leverage vehicle data to guide the sales process.

While survey respondents underscored the importance of simultaneously devoting resources to connected cars and autonomous vehicles, more than half (54%) struggle to fund and commit the necessary time to develop and implement these technologies. Concerns around the shortcomings of roads and public infrastructure (39 percent) and regulation and legal risks (37%) were also top of mind.

IP Concerns by Industry

In developing technology for connected cars and/or autonomous vehicles, respondents identified cybersecurity attacks (63%) and intellectual property protection (58%) as most concerning to their companies.

Pavan Agarwal, partner in the Washington, D.C. office and former chair of Foley’s IP Department stated “Whether a company focuses more on developing hardware components or software solutions, they need to be hyper-attuned to leveraging their own IP to gain and protect market share, as well as to addressing risk from competitors’ IP.”

More than 80 executives, a majority with C-suite or director-level titles, at leading automakers, suppliers, startups, investment firms and technology companies completed the 2017 Connected Cars & Autonomous Vehicles Survey. The results were released in conjunction with Foley’s Connected Vehicles and Emerging Technologies in the Automotive Industry event, held on October 24, 2017 in Palo Alto.

 

Car Shopping Website Interviews Car Shoppers Look to the Future of Car Buying

Edmunds.com is a media outlet designed to sell advertising to automakers and car dealers to sell cars. Edmunds.com found that aar shoppers are more ready for autonomous vehicles than they may realize, according to a new report from Edmunds. More than 60 percent of new vehicle models today can be purchased at Level 1 or Level 2 autonomy, as defined by the Society of Automotive Engineers. Five years ago less than a quarter of new vehicle models offered these features.

In a recent Edmunds survey, more than 40% of consumers said they would spend between $1,000 and $2,000 more for a vehicle that had active safety features. Blind-spot detection, pre-collision warning systems and lane keeping assist are the top features consumers said they’re willing to pay a premium for.


Which autonomous features would you be willing to pay extra for on your next vehicle?

Adaptive cruise control- 34%
Automatic Parking -33%
Lane Departure Warning/lane keeping assist 41%.
Blind-spot detection-61%
Pre-collision system- 52%
I wouldn’t pay extra 24%

How much more would you be willing to pay to have a vehicle with one or more autonomous features?

Less than $1,000 – 16%
$1,000 – $2,000 – 42%
$3,000 or more -42%

 

When we look at the people who can afford to buy a $35,000 car those 44-55 years-old 55%.  won’t feel safe 55-64 71% won’t feel safe and 72% can’t feel safe. Edmund’s news release stated:

“As automakers look to build this future buyer base, courting millennials is particularly important as they’re the ones who are most ready to be early adopters. In a recent Edmunds survey, 65% of millennials said they would trust a Level 4 autonomous vehicle, and 35% said they would buy a Level 4 autonomous vehicle if it becomes available within the next five years. Only 16% of millennials surveyed said they would never buy an autonomous vehicle, compared to nearly 50% of those 55 years old and older.”

 

The Politics of Autonomous Cars

Americans are still leery of autonomous vehicles and doubt that they can provide a safer mode of transportation, according to a Morning Consult/POLITICO poll in September. They interviewed voters, not car buyers.

35% of respondents said the automated technology is less safe than human-operated vehicles, while 18% said autonomous vehicles have about the same level of safety as human drivers.

26% said they didn’t know or had no opinion, according to the national sample of 1,975 voters.

A February 2016 poll by Morning Consult found that voters were similarly suspicious of driverless vehicles, with 43 percent of respondents saying self-driving cars aren’t safe and 32% saying they are. 25% said they didn’t know or had no opinion.

The recent survey, conducted Sept. 7 through Sept. 11, found that respondents are not likely to ride in, operate or purchase an autonomous vehicle when self-driving cars become available to consumers in the coming years. 38% said they were somewhat or very likely to ride as a passenger in an autonomous vehicle, while 51% said they were not too likely or not likely at all.

\33% of respondents said they were very or somewhat likely to operate an autonomous vehicle, and 28 percent said they were likely to purchase one. 61% said they aren’t likely to buy self-driving cars once they become available.

31% of adults under the age of 30 said autonomous vehicles are safer than the average human driver, compared with 20% of poll respondents 65 and up who said the same. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

 

Gartner 55% Will Not Ride in a Fully Autonomous Vehicle

Gartner Inc. is another industry analyst and is looking at the key to autonomouse adoption which is consumer acceptance. Gartner’s news release that teased with fact is to sell it’s research reports to businesses and investors.

Gartner, Inc. expects to see multiple launches of autonomous vehicles around 2020. However, the full impact of autonomous vehicle technology on society and the economy will not begin to emerge until approximately 2025. Consumer and social acceptance is a key driver in autonomous vehicle adoption.

The Gartner Consumer Trends in Automotive online survey, polled 1,519 people in the U.S. and Germany, found that 55% of respondents will not consider riding in a fully autonomous vehicle, while 71% may consider riding in a partially autonomous vehicle.

Concerns around technology failures and security are key reasons why many consumers are cautious about fully autonomous vehicles.

“Fear of autonomous vehicles getting confused by unexpected situations, safety concerns around equipment and system failures and vehicle and system security are top concerns around using fully autonomous vehicles,” explains Mike Ramsey, research director at Gartner.

Survey respondents agreed that fully autonomous vehicles do offer many advantages, including improved fuel economy and a reduced number and severity of crashes. Additional benefits they identified include having a safe transportation option when drivers are tired and using travel time for entertainment and work.

The survey found that consumers who currently embrace on-demand car services are more likely to ride in and purchase partially and fully autonomous vehicles. “This signifies that these more evolved users of transportation methods are more open toward the concept of autonomous cars,” said Gartner’s director or research, Mike Ramsey.

The percentage of people who used a mobility service, such as Uber or Car2Go, in the past 12 months rose to 23% from 19% in a similar survey conducted two years earlier. However, the transition to dropping a personally owned vehicle will be challenging outside of dense urban areas. For the automobile owners surveyed with a driveway or easily accessed parking, nearly half of the respondents said they would not consider giving up their own vehicle, even if they saved 75% over the cost of owning their own car. The ability to leave at any moment is the most cited reason for not replacing personal vehicles with on-demand car services. Trust and personal safety are also top concerns.

“The automotive industry is investing in new safety and convenience technology at a rate not seen since the dawn of the automobile. The experience of owning and operating a car will be dramatically different in 10 years,” Mr. Ramsey said.

Dozens of companies are currently developing sensors and other technologies required to enable vehicles to detect and understand their surroundings. As of mid-2017, more than 46 companies are building artificial intelligence (AI)-based software to control an autonomous vehicle and make it operate in the world.

Functional safety requirements, road and driving rules, and liability issues are top regulatory concerns. Discussions about functional safety requirements are in their infancy. Establishing these requirements is imperative to ensuring overall safety.

“In order for the number of autonomous vehicles to be high enough to become a highly disruptive influence, governments must develop a coherent set of regulations across states and countries,” said Ramsey. “Autonomous driving technology will fundamentally transform the automotive industry, changing the way vehicles are built, operated, sold, used and serviced."

The cost of technology will influence autonomous vehicle adoption. Autonomous vehicle sensors are expensive, as are the internal computing platform and infrastructure they require. Early autonomous vehicles are likely to cost more than $100,000 because of new technologies and the initially low volume of vehicles.

 

Reprinted from Auto Connected Car News, November 15.

 

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